December 2025 Market Snapshot (Denver + Boulder): Read the Tea Leaves

December 2025 Market Snapshot: “Read the Tea Leaves”

Hey friends—It’s time to read the tea leaves.

Quick rant (with love): the market doesn’t reward perfect plans—it rewards smart execution. In real estate, the people who win aren’t the ones waiting for the “perfect” moment—they’re the ones who adapt, take action, and make smart moves with the data available.

The truth is: nobody gets complete information in real time. The only way anyone knows the market has shifted is after it’s already happened. So, the goal isn’t certainty—it’s making the best decision you can today by paying close attention to the available lead measures—like showings per week, days-til-offer, the strength of offers, frequency of competing offers—and staying responsive as conditions change.

Lead measures are the early signals that show up before the results that make the headlines—they’re what buyers are actually doing in real time that predictably drive the “lag measures” listed in the table below.

So, here’s the data on those lag measures.
Hint: If you’re buying or selling in the next 90 days in Denver Metro (or Boulder County), this is the stuff that actually impacts your outcome.

December 2025 Market Snapshot (Denver Metro vs Boulder County)

What This Tells Us (Inventory, Leverage, Days on Market)

• Inventory is up. Buyers have more choices and sellers have more competition, which equals more buyer leverage and negotiation. Sellers HAVE to be the shiny penny to get a great outcome.
• Fewer homes are selling. There are fewer buyers in the market, and the buyers who are actively looking are generally more hesitant to move on something.
• The “average” home is trending down. Except in Boulder County, where the median price is actually UP—even though fewer have sold. Translation: the BEST homes in Boulder are SELLING (and for HIGHER PRICES), which could be a leading indicator of a Q1 buyer surge in the Boulder market. That usually means the homes that are selling skew higher quality—aka the shiny pennies are moving, and the average stuff is sitting. Sorry Denver. No such evidence yet for you.
• Buyers are negotiating harder. Homes are selling farther below original list price, driven by price reductions and tougher negotiations on homes that don’t sell quickly. Buyer negotiation power has been increasing—and it’s likely peaking (if the past few years, and the last month in Boulder, are any indication).
• Days on market are up (buyer reluctance + higher supply/lower demand). This creates more motivated sellers, exacerbates buyer reluctance, and continues to drive value downward for homes that aren’t the cream of the crop.

What It Really Means for Buyers

You’ve still got more options, more room to negotiate, and less aggressive competition than we’ve seen in a while… unless the home is close to “perfect.” That’s likely to change by January or February (see below).

I’ve actually had TWO buyers in multiple-offer scenarios in the past month. One chose not to compete, because they want to be very aggressive and get the “perfect” deal (like a lot of buyers). The other still came in below asking for a nearly-perfect place for her and got enough seller credit to buy her rate down to 5.125%.

Translation: you don’t have to sprint at every house—just the very BEST houses. With the less-than-perfect homes, you can be more strategic and create a great opportunity.

What It Really Means for Sellers (Including Expired Listings)

The “throw it on the market and see what happens” aka “list it as it is” era is over.

I keep using the terms “picture-perfect,” “HGTV-ready,” and “shiny penny,” and they all mean the same thing. The homes that are made ready to be featured on a home show are the ones that stand out in the best way—and those are STILL selling quickly, often in one-to-three weekends, and even creating competing offers.

Those haven’t seen a dip in value, while the average home is crashing.

When inventory rises and sales slow, the best-prepared and best-positioned home (SINGULAR) wins BIG.

The new seller playbook: price, present, market

Price it right (be smart + strategic—the next one to sell wins)
Present it right (condition + staging—make it obviously better)
Market it right (story + distribution—create scarcity to create urgency)

My Early Q1 2026 Forecast (Patterns, Not a Crystal Ball)

No crystal ball—just patterns.

Q1 has been the best time to list and sell almost everywhere for the past 4 years thanks to: the lowest active inventory of the year, and a customary spike in buyer activity (ahead of the annual inventory increase), which leads to the highest success rates, the quickest sales, and the highest sale price as a percentage of list price.

That is what has driven appreciation more than anything else since mid-2022. In fact, the majority of appreciation for the entire year generally happens between January & May, as a result.

Here’s some of what I expect in Q1 2026:

• Buyers stay selective (especially in Boulder, where days on market jumped by over 25%), but will actually get even more aggressive on the best homes (as long as mortgage interest stays within a quarter-point of 6.0%).
• Negotiations remain normal-to-firm (credits, repairs, and price adjustments—especially if a home misses its first 1–3 weekends of momentum), except when there are multiple buyers duking it out over the shiny penny.
• Great homes still move fast: preferred location + excellent condition & staging + strong pricing will keep winning and won’t have to deal with price reductions or hesitant buyers.
• Spring winners start now: sellers who prep in Q1 (repairs, paint, staging plan, pricing strategy) will outperform the “list in April and pray” crowd.
  
  

Translation: buyers should get prepared to move fast on the best homes, and sellers should use their time NOW to prepare, so they can launch strong and get ahead of rising inventory (and before buyer demand is sated)—not chase the market later.

Quick Action Step (Pick Your Lane)

Selling (or relisting) in the next 90 days?
Book a quick strategy call: https://calendly.com/stugalvis/20-minute-home-selling-strategy-consult-compli-clone
—or— text SELL to (720) 441-4815 and I’ll send you my simple plan for pricing + prep + launch (so you’re the shiny penny, not the average home getting ignored).

Buying and trying to win the shiny penny?
Book a quick strategy call: https://calendly.com/stugalvis/20-minute-home-buying-strategy-consult-complim-clone
—or— text BUY to (720) 441-4815 and I’ll send you my simple plan to win the right home without getting emotional, overpaying, or donating your future equity.